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xPatch: Dual-Stream Time Series Forecasting with Exponential Seasonal-Trend Decomposition

2024-12-23Code Available2· sign in to hype

Artyom Stitsyuk, Jaesik Choi

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Abstract

In recent years, the application of transformer-based models in time-series forecasting has received significant attention. While often demonstrating promising results, the transformer architecture encounters challenges in fully exploiting the temporal relations within time series data due to its attention mechanism. In this work, we design eXponential Patch (xPatch for short), a novel dual-stream architecture that utilizes exponential decomposition. Inspired by the classical exponential smoothing approaches, xPatch introduces the innovative seasonal-trend exponential decomposition module. Additionally, we propose a dual-flow architecture that consists of an MLP-based linear stream and a CNN-based non-linear stream. This model investigates the benefits of employing patching and channel-independence techniques within a non-transformer model. Finally, we develop a robust arctangent loss function and a sigmoid learning rate adjustment scheme, which prevent overfitting and boost forecasting performance. The code is available at the following repository: https://github.com/stitsyuk/xPatch.

Tasks

Benchmark Results

DatasetModelMetricClaimedVerifiedStatus
Electricity (192)xPatchMSE0.14Unverified
Electricity (336)xPatchMSE0.16Unverified
Electricity (720)xPatchMSE0.19Unverified
Electricity (96)xPatchMSE0.13Unverified
ETTh1 (192) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.38Unverified
ETTh1 (336) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.39Unverified
ETTh1 (720) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.44Unverified
ETTh1 (96) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.35Unverified
ETTh2 (192) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.28Unverified
ETTh2 (336) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.31Unverified
ETTh2 (720) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.38Unverified
ETTh2 (96) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.23Unverified
ETTm1 (192) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.32Unverified
ETTm1 (336) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.36Unverified
ETTm1 (720) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.42Unverified
ETTm1 (96) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.28Unverified
ETTm2 (192) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.21Unverified
ETTm2 (336) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.26Unverified
ETTm2 (720) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.34Unverified
ETTm2 (96) MultivariatexPatchMSE0.15Unverified
Exchange (192)xPatchMAE0.3Unverified
Exchange (336)xPatchMAE0.42Unverified
Exchange (720)xPatchMAE0.7Unverified
Exchange (96)xPatchMAE0.2Unverified
Illness (24)xPatchMAE0.64Unverified
Illness (36)xPatchMAE0.65Unverified
Illness (48)xPatchMAE0.69Unverified
Illness (60)xPatchAccuracy0.77Unverified
Solar (192)xPatchMAE0.22Unverified
Solar (336)xPatchMAE0.22Unverified
Solar (720)xPatchMAE0.22Unverified
Solar (96)xPatchMAE0.2Unverified
Traffic (192)xPatchMSE0.38Unverified
Traffic (336)xPatchMSE0.39Unverified
Traffic (720)xPatchMSE0.44Unverified
Traffic (96)xPatchMSE0.36Unverified
Weather (192)xPatchMSE0.19Unverified
Weather (336)xPatchMSE0.22Unverified
Weather (720)xPatchMSE0.29Unverified
Weather (96)xPatchMSE0.15Unverified

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