Prediction of the onset of cardiovascular diseases from electronic health records using multi-task gated recurrent units
Fernando Andreotti, Frank S. Heldt, Basel Abu-Jamous, Ming Li, Avelino Javer, Oliver Carr, Stojan Jovanovic, Nadezda Lipunova, Benjamin Irving, Rabia T. Khan, Robert Dürichen
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In this work, we propose a multi-task recurrent neural network with attention mechanism for predicting cardiovascular events from electronic health records (EHRs) at different time horizons. The proposed approach is compared to a standard clinical risk predictor (QRISK) and machine learning alternatives using 5-year data from a NHS Foundation Trust. The proposed model outperforms standard clinical risk scores in predicting stroke (AUC=0.85) and myocardial infarction (AUC=0.89), considering the largest time horizon. Benefit of using an mt setting becomes visible for very short time horizons, which results in an AUC increase between 2-6%. Further, we explored the importance of individual features and attention weights in predicting cardiovascular events. Our results indicate that the recurrent neural network approach benefits from the hospital longitudinal information and demonstrates how machine learning techniques can be applied to secondary care.