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FiLM: Frequency improved Legendre Memory Model for Long-term Time Series Forecasting

2022-05-18Code Available1· sign in to hype

Tian Zhou, Ziqing Ma, Xue Wang, Qingsong Wen, Liang Sun, Tao Yao, Wotao Yin, Rong Jin

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Abstract

Recent studies have shown that deep learning models such as RNNs and Transformers have brought significant performance gains for long-term forecasting of time series because they effectively utilize historical information. We found, however, that there is still great room for improvement in how to preserve historical information in neural networks while avoiding overfitting to noise presented in the history. Addressing this allows better utilization of the capabilities of deep learning models. To this end, we design a Frequency improved Legendre Memory model, or FiLM: it applies Legendre Polynomials projections to approximate historical information, uses Fourier projection to remove noise, and adds a low-rank approximation to speed up computation. Our empirical studies show that the proposed FiLM significantly improves the accuracy of state-of-the-art models in multivariate and univariate long-term forecasting by (20.3\%, 22.6\%), respectively. We also demonstrate that the representation module developed in this work can be used as a general plug-in to improve the long-term prediction performance of other deep learning modules. Code is available at https://github.com/tianzhou2011/FiLM/

Tasks

Benchmark Results

DatasetModelMetricClaimedVerifiedStatus
ETTh1 (192) MultivariateFiLMMSE0.41Unverified
ETTh1 (192) UnivariateFiLMMSE0.07Unverified
ETTh1 (336) MultivariateFiLMMSE0.44Unverified
ETTh1 (336) UnivariateFiLMMSE0.08Unverified
ETTh1 (720) MultivariateFiLMMSE0.47Unverified
ETTh1 (720) UnivariateFiLMMSE0.09Unverified
ETTh1 (96) MultivariateFiLMMSE0.37Unverified
ETTh1 (96) UnivariateFiLMMSE0.06Unverified
ETTh2 (192) MultivariateFiLMMSE0.36Unverified
ETTh2 (192) UnivariateFiLMMSE0.18Unverified
ETTh2 (336) MultivariateFiLMMSE0.38Unverified
ETTh2 (336) UnivariateFiLMMSE0.2Unverified
ETTh2 (720) MultivariateFiLMMSE0.44Unverified
ETTh2 (720) UnivariateFiLMMSE0.24Unverified
ETTh2 (96) MultivariateFiLMMSE0.28Unverified
ETTh2 (96) UnivariateFiLMMSE0.13Unverified

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