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Disentangled Interpretable Representation for Efficient Long-term Time Series Forecasting

2024-11-26Code Available1· sign in to hype

Yuang Zhao, Tianyu Li, Jiadong Chen, Shenrong Ye, Fuxin Jiang, Tieying Zhang, Xiaofeng Gao

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Abstract

Industry 5.0 introduces new challenges for Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF), characterized by high-dimensional, high-resolution data and high-stakes application scenarios. Against this backdrop, developing efficient and interpretable models for LTSF becomes a key challenge. Existing deep learning and linear models often suffer from excessive parameter complexity and lack intuitive interpretability. To address these issues, we propose DiPE-Linear, a Disentangled interpretable Parameter-Efficient Linear network. DiPE-Linear incorporates three temporal components: Static Frequential Attention (SFA), Static Temporal Attention (STA), and Independent Frequential Mapping (IFM). These components alternate between learning in the frequency and time domains to achieve disentangled interpretability. The decomposed model structure reduces parameter complexity from quadratic in fully connected networks (FCs) to linear and computational complexity from quadratic to log-linear. Additionally, a Low-Rank Weight Sharing policy enhances the model's ability to handle multivariate series. Despite operating within a subspace of FCs with limited expressive capacity, DiPE-Linear demonstrates comparable or superior performance to both FCs and nonlinear models across multiple open-source and real-world LTSF datasets, validating the effectiveness of its sophisticatedly designed structure. The combination of efficiency, accuracy, and interpretability makes DiPE-Linear a strong candidate for advancing LTSF in both research and real-world applications. The source code is available at https://github.com/wintertee/DiPE-Linear.

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Benchmark Results

DatasetModelMetricClaimedVerifiedStatus
Electricity (192)DiPE-LinearMSE0.15Unverified
Electricity (336)DiPE-LinearMSE0.16Unverified
Electricity (720)DiPE-LinearMSE0.2Unverified
Electricity (96)DiPE-LinearMSE0.13Unverified
ETTh1 (192) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.41Unverified
ETTh1 (336) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.42Unverified
ETTh1 (720) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.41Unverified
ETTh1 (96) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.37Unverified
ETTh2 (192) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.33Unverified
ETTh2 (336) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.35Unverified
ETTh2 (720) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.38Unverified
ETTh2 (96) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.28Unverified
ETTm1 (192) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.34Unverified
ETTm1 (336) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.37Unverified
ETTm1 (720) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.42Unverified
ETTm1 (96) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.31Unverified
ETTm2 (192) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.22Unverified
ETTm2 (336) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.27Unverified
ETTm2 (720) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.35Unverified
ETTm2 (96) MultivariateDiPE-LinearMSE0.16Unverified
Weather (192)DiPE-LinearMSE0.19Unverified
Weather (336)DiPE-LinearMSE0.23Unverified
Weather (720)DiPE-LinearMSE0.31Unverified
Weather (96)DiPE-LinearMSE0.14Unverified

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