Counterfactual Explanations for Survival Prediction of Cardiovascular ICU Patients

Code

• github.com/zhendong3wang/counterfactuals-for-event-sequences
  pytorch★ 3

Abstract

In recent years, machine learning methods have been rapidly implemented in the medical domain. However, current state-of-the-art methods usually produce opaque, black-box models. To address the lack of model transparency, substantial attention has been given to develop interpretable machine learning methods. In the medical domain, counterfactuals can provide example-based explanations for predictions, and show practitioners the modifications required to change a prediction from an undesired to a desired state. In this paper, we propose a counterfactual explanation solution for predicting the survival of cardiovascular ICU patients, by representing their electronic health record as a sequence of medical events, and generating counterfactuals by adopting and employing a text style-transfer technique. Experimental results on the MIMIC-III dataset strongly suggest that text style-transfer methods can …

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Reproductions