Bayesian deep neural networks for low-cost neurophysiological markers of Alzheimer's disease severity
Wolfgang Fruehwirt, Adam D. Cobb, Martin Mairhofer, Leonard Weydemann, Heinrich Garn, Reinhold Schmidt, Thomas Benke, Peter Dal-Bianco, Gerhard Ransmayr, Markus Waser, Dieter Grossegger, Pengfei Zhang, Georg Dorffner, Stephen Roberts
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As societies around the world are ageing, the number of Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients is rapidly increasing. To date, no low-cost, non-invasive biomarkers have been established to advance the objectivization of AD diagnosis and progression assessment. Here, we utilize Bayesian neural networks to develop a multivariate predictor for AD severity using a wide range of quantitative EEG (QEEG) markers. The Bayesian treatment of neural networks both automatically controls model complexity and provides a predictive distribution over the target function, giving uncertainty bounds for our regression task. It is therefore well suited to clinical neuroscience, where data sets are typically sparse and practitioners require a precise assessment of the predictive uncertainty. We use data of one of the largest prospective AD EEG trials ever conducted to demonstrate the potential of Bayesian deep learning in this domain, while comparing two distinct Bayesian neural network approaches, i.e., Monte Carlo dropout and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo.