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Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network for Traffic Forecasting

2020-07-06NeurIPS 2020Code Available1· sign in to hype

Lei Bai, Lina Yao, Can Li, Xianzhi Wang, Can Wang

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Abstract

Modeling complex spatial and temporal correlations in the correlated time series data is indispensable for understanding the traffic dynamics and predicting the future status of an evolving traffic system. Recent works focus on designing complicated graph neural network architectures to capture shared patterns with the help of pre-defined graphs. In this paper, we argue that learning node-specific patterns is essential for traffic forecasting while the pre-defined graph is avoidable. To this end, we propose two adaptive modules for enhancing Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) with new capabilities: 1) a Node Adaptive Parameter Learning (NAPL) module to capture node-specific patterns; 2) a Data Adaptive Graph Generation (DAGG) module to infer the inter-dependencies among different traffic series automatically. We further propose an Adaptive Graph Convolutional Recurrent Network (AGCRN) to capture fine-grained spatial and temporal correlations in traffic series automatically based on the two modules and recurrent networks. Our experiments on two real-world traffic datasets show AGCRN outperforms state-of-the-art by a significant margin without pre-defined graphs about spatial connections.

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Benchmark Results

DatasetModelMetricClaimedVerifiedStatus
BJTaxiAGCRNMAE @ in12.3Unverified
EXPY-TKYAGCRN1 step MAE5.99Unverified
NE-BJAGCRN12 steps MAE4.99Unverified
NYCBike1AGCRNMAE @ in5.17Unverified
NYCBike2AGCRNMAE @ in5.18Unverified
NYCTaxiAGCRNMAE @ in12.13Unverified
PeMS04AGCRN12 Steps MAE19.83Unverified

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