Adaptive calibration for binary classification

Abstract

This note proposes a way of making probability forecasting rules less sensitive to changes in data distribution, concentrating on the simple case of binary classification. This is important in applications of machine learning, where the quality of a trained predictor may drop significantly in the process of its exploitation. Our techniques are based on recent work on conformal test martingales and older work on prediction with expert advice, namely tracking the best expert.

Tasks

Reproductions