A simple and intuitive method to calculate R_0 in complex epidemic models

Abstract

Epidemic models are a valuable tool in the decision making process. Once a mathematical model for an epidemics has been established, the very next step is calculating a mathematical expression for the basic reproductive number, R_0, which is the average number of infections caused by an individual that is introduced in a population of susceptibles. Finding a mathematical expression for R_0 is important because it allows to analyze the effect of the different parameters in the model on R_0 so that we can act on them to keep R_0 < 1, so that the epidemic fades out. In this work we show how to calculate R_0 in complicated epidemic models by using only basic concepts of Markov chains.

Tasks

Reproductions