A sequential Monte Carlo approach to estimate a time varying reproduction number in infectious disease models: the Covid-19 case
Geir Storvik, Alfonso Diz-Louis Palomares, Solveig Engebretsen, Gunnar Øyvind Isaksson Rø, Kenth Engø-Monsen, Aja Bråthen Kristoffersen, Birgitte Freiesleben de Blasio, Arnoldo Frigessi
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Abstract
During the first months, the Covid-19 pandemic has required most countries to implement complex sequences of non-pharmaceutical interventions, with the aim of controlling the transmission of the virus in the population. To be able to take rapid decisions, a detailed understanding of the current situation is necessary. Estimates of time-varying, instantaneous reproduction numbers represent a way to quantify the viral transmission in real time. They are often defined through a mathematical compartmental model of the epidemic, like a stochastic SEIR model, whose parameters must be estimated from multiple time series of epidemiological data. Because of very high dimensional parameter spaces (partly due to the stochasticity in the spread models) and incomplete and delayed data, inference is very challenging. We propose a state space formalisation of the model and a sequential Monte Carlo approach which allow to estimate a daily-varying reproduction number for the Covid-19 epidemic in Norway with sufficient precision, on the basis of daily hospitalisation and positive test incidences. The method is in regular use in Norway and is a powerful instrument for epidemic monitoring and management.