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A hybrid method of Exponential Smoothing and Recurrent Neural Networks for time series forecasting

2019-07-18International Journal of Forecasting 2019Code Available0· sign in to hype

Slawek Smyl

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Abstract

This paper presents the winning submission of the M4 forecasting competition. The submission utilizes a Dynamic Computational Graph Neural Network system that enables mixing of a standard Exponential Smoothing model with advanced Long Short Term Memory networks into a common framework. The result is a hybrid and hierarchical forecasting method. Keywords: Forecasting competitions, M4, Dynamic Computational Graphs, Automatic Differentiation, Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Exponential Smoothing

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