BOxCrete: A Bayesian Optimization Open-Source AI Model for Concrete Strength Forecasting and Mix Optimization

Abstract

Modern concrete must simultaneously satisfy evolving demands for mechanical performance, workability, durability, and sustainability, making mix designs increasingly complex. Recent studies leveraging Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) models show promise for predicting compressive strength and guiding mix optimization, but most existing efforts are based on proprietary industrial datasets and closed-source implementations. Here we introduce BOxCrete, an open-source probabilistic modeling and optimization framework trained on a new open-access dataset of over 500 strength measurements (1-15 ksi) from 123 mixtures - 69 mortar and 54 concrete mixes tested at five curing ages (1, 3, 5, 14, and 28 days). BOxCrete leverages Gaussian Process (GP) regression to predict strength development, achieving average R^2 = 0.94 and RMSE = 0.69 ksi, quantify uncertainty, and carry out multi-objective optimization of compressive strength and embodied carbon. The dataset and model establish a reproducible open-source foundation for data-driven development of AI-based optimized mix designs.

Reproductions